提升中小学生阅读兴趣的实证研究——基于MIMIC模型的教学效能分析

提升学生的阅读素养是当前我国阅读课程教学改革的重要目标之一。本研究首次尝试将群文阅读这种新兴的阅读教学方式与传统的单本阅读教学方式进行对比研究，主要从提升学生阅读兴趣的效能方面进行分析与探讨。实验涉及我国中西部5个省市、6个区县共计1 231名中小学生，并使用MIMIC模型，在有效控制测量误差的基础上，对实证数据进行了量化建模与分析，通过分析发现，群文阅读教学对激发学生阅读的“情境兴趣”有更加显著的作用，具体表现为对学生阅读注意力、情感体验、探索意愿、价值感知的影响更大，同时也验证了Knogler提出的“情境兴趣模型”在阅读教学领域的适用性，从而为进一步推进我国中小学阅读课程教学改革提供了科学的数据支撑。因此，为提升中小学生阅读素养，在阅读教学中引入群文阅读这一新兴的教学方式，具有重要的实践价值和现实意义。     

The echo chamber is overstated: the moderating effect of political interest and diverse media

ABSTRACT

In a high-choice media environment, there are fears that individuals will select media and content that reinforce their existing beliefs and lead to segregation based on interest and/or partisanship. This could lead to partisan echo chambers among those who are politically interested and could contribute to a growing gap in knowledge between those who are politically interested and those who are not. However, the high-choice environment also allows individuals, including those who are politically interested, to consume a wide variety of media, which could lead them to more diverse content and perspectives. This study examines the relationship between political interest as well as media diversity and being caught in an echo chamber (measured by five different variables). Using a nationally representative survey of adult internet users in the United Kingdom (N?=?2000), we find that those who are interested in politics and those with diverse media diets tend to avoid echo chambers. This work challenges the impact of echo chambers and tempers fears of partisan segregation since only a small segment of the population are likely to find themselves in an echo chamber. We argue that single media studies and studies which use narrow definitions and measurements of being in an echo chamber are flawed because they do not test the theory in the realistic context of a multiple media environment.     

超级网络平台限制交易行为的反垄断规制

从“3Q大战”“3百大战”到天猫京东“二选一”事件，超级网络平台实施限制交易行为的现象越演越烈，也成为当前互联网领域的反垄断难题。我国反垄断法律法规在对网络空间的相关市场及市场支配地位的认定上存在适用困境，超级网络平台滥用市场支配地位的行为无法被认定且无法有效规制的现象长期存在。为规范超级网络平台的经营行为，应当调整《反垄断法》关于相关市场与市场支配地位的认定规则，将反垄断案件纳入公益诉讼范围，采取国家诉讼和私人诉讼并行的双重诉讼机制，减轻原告举证责任负担，同时将《反垄断法》与《电子商务法》衔接适用。     

Ordering properties of largest order statistics from independent and heterogeneous Dagum populations

Abstract

The Dagum distribution has been extensively used to model income data, and its features have been appreciated in economics and financial studies. In this article, we discuss ordering properties of largest order statistics from independent and heterogeneous Dagum populations. We present some sufficient conditions for stochastic comparisons between largest order statistics in terms of the reversed hazard rate order, the usual stochastic order, the convex order, the likelihood ratio order and the dispersive order. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the results established here.     

乡村生态环境治理“阻点”及其破解路径研究 — —基于利益相关性视角

乡村生态环境治理是乡村振兴行之有效的切入点。但当前，乡村生态环境治理，在不同利益主体不同利益关注点下，出 现了多重阻点，如政府有限利益认知下的治理排序选择；政府“重当下政绩，轻远期生态”的行政作为；村民“重当下收益、轻长 远生态”的个体作为；村民“重私人利益，忽视公共利益”的习惯性倾向；乡村污染型企业主“重成本支出，忽视生态环境”的行为 选择等造成了乡村生态环境治理重重“阻点”。为破解这些治理阻点，需要重构乡村生态环境整治利益机制，重塑利益链条，并 建设包括理念重整、生产转型、技术提升、监督强化等在内的路径体系。     

论生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼之衔接

在现行司法实践中,我国对生态环境损害之救济采取的是生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼并行的"双轨制"模式.通过分析典型案件可以发现,现行立法未能为化解生态环境损害赔偿诉讼与环境公益诉讼之间的制度"碰撞"提供明确的规范指南,导致"两诉"之间时常会陷入管辖冲突与衔接困境.生态环境损害赔偿诉讼的模糊属性以及相关立法规定的缺失,是导致"两诉"衔接陷入困境之根由.为此,应当在准确识别生态环境损害赔偿诉讼性质之前提下,通过立法对"两诉"之间的顺位规则、索赔主体机制等核心规范予以明确.具体而言,未来我国应当明确生态环境损害赔偿诉讼优于环境公益诉讼的顺位规则,并建立"行政机关—环保组织—检察机关"三位一体且逐层递进的索赔主体结构,最大程度发挥"两诉"之制度合力.     

Parametrizing the Kepler exoplanet period-radius distribution with the bivariate normal inverse Gaussian distribution

This paper presents a simple and robust method for obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the joint period and radius distribution in Kepler exoplanets. The proposed method is based on particle swarm optimization and bivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, in the construction of the probability density function, this study selects planet-host stars with the GK-type. The injecting approach is also employed to solve the survey completeness of sample. The resulting occurrence rate of Earth analogs is 0.025 with a 95% bootstrap confidence interval between 0.023 and 0.032.     

遗产动机对中国老年家庭储蓄率的影响

中国人口老龄化问题日益凸显,老年家庭储蓄率居高不下,标准生命周期假说理论已无法解释。基于中国家庭金融调查数据,从遗产动机视角分析老年家庭高储蓄率现象。研究结果表明,中国老年家庭遗产动机显著提升家庭储蓄率,遗产动机使得老年家庭储蓄率水平显著提高5%—10%左右。进一步研究发现,相比较于城市家庭,遗产动机对农村家庭储蓄影响显著;相对于高等财富家庭而言,遗产动机显著促进中低财富家庭储蓄率水平,说明“未富先老”使得老年家庭有更强的遗产动机进行储蓄;对于家庭不同生活状况的子女,遗产动机显著提升子女体制外工作和子女教育水平低的老年家庭储蓄率,表明中国老年家庭利他主义的遗产动机较强。本文为理解中国老年家庭的高储蓄提供了新的视角,可以为政府相关部门制定政策提供参考。     

Adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data during a new drug development process

During a new drug development process, it is desirable to timely detect potential safety signals. For this purpose, repeated meta‐analyses may be performed sequentially on accumulating safety data. Moreover, if the amount of safety data from the originally planned program is not enough to ensure adequate power to test a specific hypothesis (e.g., the noninferiority hypothesis of an event of interest), the total sample size may be increased by adding new studies to the program. Without appropriate adjustment, it is well known that the type I error rate will be inflated because of repeated analyses and sample size adjustment. In this paper, we discuss potential issues associated with adaptive and repeated cumulative meta‐analyses of safety data conducted during a drug development process. We consider both frequentist and Bayesian approaches. A new drug development example is used to demonstrate the application of the methods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

环境污染社会第三方治理研究

环境污染风险具有流动性、不确定性、跨时空性、不可测量性及难以修复性特征,导致环境污染国家治理机制和环境污染市场治理机制存在制度性局限,亟须建构环境污染社会第三方治理机制。环保社会第三方具有公共性、公益性、专业性、中立性及组织性的特点,环境污染社会第三方治理能够实现利益诉求、利益发展、利益协调及利益保障的制度绩效。针对环境污染社会第三方治理面临的宏观权力结构性失衡、中观机制整体性失调、微观行为系统性失范等瓶颈,优化我国环境污染社会第三方治理的结构性均衡机制、整体性实施机制和系统性规范机制。